| A | B |
|---|
| Public Opinion | Those opinions or beliefs about policy issues held by ordinary citizens. |
| Opinion Poles | Interviews with a sample of citizens that are used to extimate public opinion of the entire population in order to determine waht the public is thinking. |
| Polling began in the ??? | 1930's |
| How do we obtain accurate data in the poles? | Determine the content of the pole, phrase the questions, select the sample and the right type of poll. |
| Political Socialization | The process through which an individual acquires his or her political beliefs or values. |
| Straw Polls | Unscientific surveys used to gauge public opinion on a variety of issues and policies; used in 30's by the Literary Digest. |
| Gallup Organization | one of the polling groups beginning in the 40's that began employing more sophisticated techniques. |
| Set back for polling | When they predicted that Thomas E. Dewey would defeat Harry Truman in the presidential election of 1948. |
| Factors which influence Political Socialization | Family, mass media, school, peers, impact of events, social groups |
| Factors which influence opinion on particular issues | Religion, region, race, gender, age |
| Political Ideology | An individual's coherent set of values and veliefs about the purpose and scope of government |
| Liberals | Currently one who believes in more government action to meet individual needs. Originally, a liberal was one who resisted government encroachment on individual liberties. |
| Conservatives | A defender of the status quo who, when change becomes necessary in tested institutions or practices, prefers that it come slowly, and in moderation. |
| Personal Benifits | 1) Most people choose policies that benefit them personally. 2) Individuals often have difficulty forming opinions when they are faced with policies that don't affect them personally or do not involve moral issues. |
| Political Knowledege | 1) the American level of political knowledge is low. 2) Despite this, Americans are still willing to offer opinions on key issues. |
| Cues from Leaders | 1) Political leaders can play a key role in influencing public opinion due to media, ESPECIALLY the President. He has a very powerful effect on Public Opinion if he is a popular one. |
| Random Sampling | Respondents are chosen by a mathematical formula to enhance the likelihood that those surveryed are representative of a much larger poplulation. |
| Nonstratified sampling | Unrepresentative samples used for surveys such as television "straw polls." These polls and surveys are less reliable than other methods, but are frequently used. |
| Quota Sampling | A nonprobability sample that draws respondents based on known statistics such as race, gender or ethnicity. |
| Stratified or Mutistage Sampling | A mult-stage sampling technique that makes use of census data to determine residences to be polled in certain areas. |
| Kinds of Polls | Telephone Poll, In-person Poll, Trackin Polls, Exit Polls, Deliberative Polls |
| Tracking polls | Tracking polls involve small samples of interviews conducted every 24 hours, generalof registered voters contactedat certain times of the day. 2) Tracking polls are usually combined with a moving statistical average to boost the sample size and statistical reliablility. 3) Although criticized due to reliability problems, most major news organizations use them. |
| Exit Polls | 1) Conducted at selected polling places on Election Day. 2) Criticized because often respondents are not truthful when responding to the pollsters' questions. |
| Deliberative Polls | 1) A random sample of voters hears intensive briefings, discussions, and presentaiton on important issues. 2) Deliberative polls are designed to measure what the public would think, if the public were well informed about the issues. 3) They have been criticized on methodological grounds and for attemting to shape public opinion. |
| Poll Shortcomings | 1) Sampling error- A measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll; the difference between the actual universe and the sample. 2) Margin of error- IN a standard sample of 1500 respondents, the sampling error is generally pulus or minus 3%. |
| How much is spent on polls and surveys? | Millions of dollars annually |
| Benjamin Gensburg | Contends that public opinion polls weaken democracy because they allow governments and politicians to say they have considered public opinion, in spite of the fact that polls may inadequately measure the intensity of an issue. |
