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multiple regression, forecasting & indices

CPIwhat we have to divide into money income in order to get "real income" as adjusted for inflation
FISHER IDEALan aggregate price index which is the geometric mean of two other aggregate indices
LASPEYRESaggregate index using old product quantities as a base
PAASCHEaggregate index using new product quantities as base
DOW JONESaggregate index of 30 stocks
STANDARD & POORaggregate index of 500 stocks
PERCENT CHANGE100 * (new value - old value) / old value
100index value showing no change from base time
UNWEIGHTED INDEXan index which does not take into account relative consumption patterns (e.g., that more people purchase gasoline than aviation fuel)
REAL INCOMEa person's dollar income divided by the CPI
SECULARa consistently rising or falling trend
SEASONALvariation taking place within a year
CYCLICALconsistent variation taking place in a period longer than a year
AGGREGATEa composite index considering many different prices, usually weighted
AUTOCORRELATIONwhen successive DV measures are correlated
CORRELATION MATRIXa table showing the correlation between all combinations of variables
CROSS LAGGED & PATH ANALYSIScorrelational analysis that attempts to infer causation
DUMMYa binary nominal variable coded as 1 for yes and 0 for no
DURBIN WATSONa test for multicollinearity
EXTRAPOLATIONestimation using a line graph, but extending beyond the range for which we have data
HETEROSCEDASTICITYwhen the strength of an association is not constant over the range of the IV
HOMOSCEDASTICITYwhen the strength of an association is constant over the range of the IV
LINE GRAPHthe type of graph used for showing time series changes
MULTICOLLINEARITYthe degree of inter-correlation between IVs
OUTLIERunusually high or low scores which can distort parametric measures

Professor of Psychology
Crafton Hills College
Long Beach, CA

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